The Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on June 4th. The Canadian dollar depreciated by 1.8% against the US dollar that week (Bloomberg data), pushing the exchange rate of 1 BTC against the Canadian dollar to break through the historical psychological level of 89,000 CAD. According to real-time monitoring by Kraken Exchange, the trading volume of Canadian users increased by 57% week-on-week. Among them, the proportion of large exchanges exceeding 1.5 BTC per transaction reached 32% of the total, far higher than the global average of 19%. The Energy market linkage effect is significant: Alberta oilfield enterprise Blacksteel Energy allocates 13% of its cash flow to Bitcoin (with an average crude oil output of 0.00034 BTC per barrel in 2024), accelerating the demand for fiat currency conversion.
Changes in the liquidity structure intensify the amplitude of fluctuations. BitMEX depth chart shows that during the 9-11 a.m. Toronto time trading session, the bid-ask spread of CAD trading pairs expanded from 0.3% to 0.7%, with the highest order flow in a single minute reaching 4.2 million Canadian dollars. The root cause lies in the fact that the Purpose Bitcoin ETF (code BTCC) saw a peak net inflow of 28 million Canadian dollars in a single day, accounting for 19% of the total assets under management (AUM) of Canadian crypto ETFs. On-chain data supports this: From June 1st to 7th, Canadian exchanges saw a net outflow of 17,400 BTC, setting a new record for the largest weekly outflow since 2022 (Glassnode statistics).
Regulatory milestone events catalyze market sentiment. The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) approved the registration of the first Bitcoin collateralized lending platform on June 6, allowing users to collateralize 1 BTC to obtain a maximum loan of CAD 65% (LTV ratio). At the same time, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) updated the tax filing guidelines for digital assets, clearly stating that the tax rate on BTC gains held for more than 12 months has been reduced to 50% (the original taxable ratio was 100%), which has stimulated investors’ willingness to adjust their portfolios. Compared with the performance of gold: The monthly return rate of Bitcoin +14.2% (1 BTC = 89,500 CAD), while the gold contract of the Toronto Futures Exchange only +2.1%, the substitution effect of safe-haven assets is accelerating.
The international capital flow model reveals the underlying kinetic energy. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor indicates that the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 78%, and the spread between the two-year Treasury bonds of Canada and the United States has widened to -32 basis points (historical negative correlation -0.81), prompting the Canadian Pension fund CPPIB to increase its digital asset allocation from 0.3% to 1.2%. Technical indicators verify the strength of the trend: The BTC/CAD weekly RSI has broken through the overbought threshold of 68, the Bollinger bands have expanded to 11.5% (annualized volatility 41%), and the open interest of CME futures has soared by 23%. Backed by the OSC Investor Protection framework (95% cold storage requirement), 1 bitcoin to cad is becoming a core tool for hedging against the depreciation of the domestic currency.